The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) lowered the official exchange rate of the hryvnia on Monday by 12 kopecks and further dropped it by 7 kopecks on Tuesday to 41.5035 UAH/$1, according to data from the regulator's website.
"The currency market in Ukraine remains under the influence of psychological factors, although the fundamental macroeconomic indicators do not currently provide grounds for strong devaluation pressure and abrupt changes in exchange rates," analysts from KIT Group state in their currency market review and forecast.
The analysts anticipate a gradual devaluation of the hryvnia moving forward. According to the forecast from KIT Group, the official exchange rate of the national currency against the US dollar will stay within the range of 41-42 UAH/$1 until the end of November, assuming the current state of the macroeconomy and security situation remains unchanged.
By the end of this year, analysts predict the hryvnia will weaken to 43 UAH/$1, attributing this to seasonal demand for foreign currency.
The National Bank set the reference rate at 12:00 on that day at 41.4815 UAH/$1, compared to 41.4087 UAH/$1 the previous day.
The US dollar in the cash market rose by 8 kopecks on Tuesday for both buying and selling: reaching 41.68 UAH/$1 and 41.75 UAH/$1, respectively.
Since the beginning of 2024, the dollar has appreciated by 9.2% or 3.50 UAH based on the official rate, and since the NBU switched to a managed flexibility regime on October 3, 2023, it has increased by 13.5% or 4.93 UAH.
The average annual figure of 45 UAH/$1 included in the state budget for 2025 is considered realistic by KIT Group analysts, who note that it anticipates fluctuations in the exchange rate within a range of 44-46 UAH/$1.
Ukraine's international reserves in October, according to preliminary estimates from the NBU, decreased by 6% or $2.32 billion to $36.578 billion, while net international reserves (NIR) fell by $3.11 billion or 12.2% to $22.437 billion.