Today, scientists tirelessly emphasize the climate crisis looming over our planet, warning that the consequences will be catastrophic not only for humanity but for all living beings on Earth. But how quickly is the Earth actually warming? Researchers believe it is happening at an unprecedented rate, as reported by Science Alert.
In September 1933, American meteorologist Joseph Kincer posed the question: is the Earth's climate changing? After examining temperature trends measured around the globe, Kincer concluded that the world is becoming significantly warmer, although he did not specify the cause of this phenomenon.
Several years later, in 1938, British engineer Guy Callendar demonstrated that the average surface temperature had risen by approximately 0.3°C over the previous 50 years. He believed that this increase was largely due to the rising levels of carbon dioxide in the Earth's atmosphere resulting from coal burning. His findings were based on early theories of the greenhouse effect.
Today, scientists utilize data collected from thousands of ground weather stations, satellites, and ships, combining it with models to forecast weather. This helps to create a coherent picture of how the Earth's climate has changed day by day, decade by decade.
Observations indicate that the last two years, 2023 and 2024, have been the hottest on record since the mid-19th century, approximately 1.5°C above the temperatures of the early industrial era. It took a century for the planet to warm by the first 0.3°C, but the world has increased by 1°C in just the last 60 years. The conclusion is clear: the Earth is getting hotter and warming at an accelerating pace.
What, then, is causing such rapid global warming of the planet? Firstly, scientists attribute it to the greenhouse gas emissions from humanity. As the amount of greenhouse gases we emit increases, the rate at which the world heats up accelerates. Thus, reducing emissions will unfortunately not reverse global warming, but scientists believe it will slow it down. Only after emissions reach zero is it expected that the global temperature will stabilize.
However, there are other factors that have led to the Earth not warming at a consistent rate over time. For instance, the rate of global warming has been relatively steady at 0.2°C per decade from 1970 to the present, which is much faster than any previous period. The last two years may indicate that this rate is accelerating, but scientists do not claim to know for sure.
Before 1970, there was a period of slight global cooling due to the rapid increase in reflective aerosol particles added to the atmosphere, also from burning fossil fuels. In the 1960s, clean air policies were initiated, which reduced the cooling effect. Before World War II, natural climate changes predominated, with very slow warming from early industrialization.
Nonetheless, studies show that the world has not warmed uniformly across all regions. Data suggests that land has warmed faster than the global average, while oceans have warmed more slowly. New data indicates that the fastest-warming region today is the Arctic, which is heating up four times faster than the global average.
According to Ed Hawkins, a professor of climatology at the University of Reading, the sustained warmth over the past two years has surprised scientists. However, researchers predict that 2025 is likely to be cooler than 2024 due to the transition from El Niño to La Niña in the tropical Pacific.
It is expected that the world will exceed a 1.5°C increase in temperature as a long-term average sometime in the next decade or so. Climatologists believe that the future of the planet truly depends on the actions we take in the coming years.