The energy sector of Russia, particularly the oil and gas industry, is the most vulnerable aspect of the Kremlin's military economy, and this is where Trump sees an opportunity to strike.
Senior energy journalist Aura Sabadus notes in her article for the Atlantic Council that U.S. sanctions against the Russian energy sector were significantly intensified at the beginning of 2025. This new sanctions package has become one of the most aggressive since the onset of the full-scale war. It could play a crucial role in negotiations for a potential peaceful resolution to the war in Ukraine, as the U.S. is likely to increase liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports to Europe, allowing for a replacement of Russian gas.
The threat of additional sanctions pertains to the transit of Russian oil through Ukraine. Trump may urge Ukrainian authorities to ban this transit to Hungary, further intensifying economic pressure on Russia. And while the U.S. may face limitations on gas sanctions due to increased LNG demand from China and India, this does not diminish the importance of other measures, such as tightening sanctions on oil supplies and expanding secondary sanctions.
Despite the challenges in achieving full success with sanctions policy, the fragility of Russia's energy empire remains a significant factor. In particular, Gazprom, the Kremlin's main energy player, has already incurred substantial losses over the past two years. In 2025, this situation may worsen due to the cessation of gas transit through Ukraine, exacerbating Russia's economic difficulties.
Trump, in turn, continues to work closely with the EU and the UK to expand and strengthen sanctions against the Russian energy sector. This serves as a signal to Moscow that Russia's economic problems will only deepen if Putin refuses to engage in peace talks and continues the war against Ukraine.
Source: atlanticcouncil.