Tuesday11 February 2025
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By 2099, the death of 5.8 million people is inevitable. Discover the causes behind this projected loss of life (photos included).

A new alarming study predicts the number of people who are inevitably expected to die by the end of this century, and this is just the beginning.
К 2099 году ожидается смерть 5,8 миллиона человек: узнайте, какие факторы приведут к их гибели (фото).

In recent years, scientists have increasingly focused on studying how the Earth's climate systems are changing and how this impacts various ecosystems and living organisms. In a new alarming analysis, researchers found that 5.6 million residents of Europe are likely to die by 2099, according to Daily Mail.

Researchers from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine discovered that at least 5.8 million Europeans will die from extreme heat between 2015 and 2099. At the same time, experts warn that their analysis does not take into account the consequences of catastrophic weather events caused by climate change, such as large-scale wildfires or extreme tropical storms. In simple terms, the actual number of fatalities is likely to be even higher.

The study's authors also note that global warming is likely to halt cold-related deaths, but the increase in heat-related fatalities will overall outweigh the decrease in cold-related deaths. By the end of the century, Barcelona is expected to record the highest number of temperature-related deaths, followed by Rome, Naples, and Madrid.

According to the lead author of the study, Dr. Pierre Masselo, the results of their analysis highlight the urgent need for aggressive climate change mitigation and adaptation to increased heat. The team believes this is particularly important for regions such as the Mediterranean.

The authors of the study also emphasize that if necessary actions are not taken soon, the consequences could be dire. Conversely, by following a more sustainable path, humanity could avoid millions of deaths by the end of the century.

Previously, some believed that global warming would result in fewer people dying from cold. However, scientists also suggested that climate change could be "beneficial," as it would lead to a "net reduction" in temperature-related deaths. In simple terms, the theory posits that while casualties due to global warming are inevitable, their number would be less than those who would otherwise die from the cold.

европа, жара в европе, смертность в европе

In a new study, scientists have proven that this theory is incorrect, at least in Europe. The researchers' findings show that the rise in heat-related deaths consistently exceeds any decrease in cold-related fatalities across all scenarios examined.

In their work, Dr. Masselo and colleagues analyzed data on temperature and mortality, which helped the team forecast future temperature-related deaths. The scientists' analysis covered 854 European cities from 2015 to 2099. For each city, researchers calculated a "net" figure—the number of deaths caused by heat minus the deaths "saved" from cold.

In a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario with no adaptation to heat, a total of 5,825,746 people will die in Europe, while 3,480,336 deaths will be avoided. Thus, the "net" mortality level in Europe by the end of the century will be 2,345,410 people. The southern European regions, particularly the Mediterranean and the Balkans, will be the most vulnerable to heat. The highest number of deaths is projected in Barcelona—246,082, followed by Rome—147,738, Naples—147,248, Madrid—129,716, Milan—110,131, and Athens—87,523.

On the other hand, most cities in the British Isles and Scandinavian countries, such as London, Copenhagen, and Stockholm, will experience a "net reduction" in mortality—meaning more people will be "saved" from cold than killed by heat.

However, scientists found that without adaptation to heat, the rise in heat-related mortality consistently exceeds any decrease in cold-related mortality across Europe. The authors of the study also note that their findings focus on average daily temperatures and do not account for specific weather events that could alter the projected number of deaths. In simple terms, the actual number of climate-related deaths in Europe is likely to be higher when including events such as climate-induced floods and wildfires. It is also important to note that the researchers' work is focused exclusively on Europe and does not encompass the entire globe.