The victor will be the one who masters technology: this will be the key to success in tomorrow's world.
It is often claimed that the invention of the printing press marked the beginning of the modern era, allowing the ideas of the scientific revolution to spread. But does this give us the complete picture?
Writer Yuval Noah Harari, for instance, believes that evolution is much more complex: he argues that the printing press spawned conspiracy theories and fake news over two centuries, leading to grotesque phenomena such as witch trials. And when a revolution in scientific and philosophical thought occurred about 200 years later, it happened only after our institutions had earned the public's trust.
In simpler terms, we struggle to adapt quickly in peacetime — a lesson our leaders and institutions must remember today.
The technological disruption of information we are currently experiencing through artificial intelligence is also capable of undermining our democracies, before AI can be harnessed to strengthen them. With a plethora of new powerful technologies on the horizon, we are only at the beginning of forthcoming upheavals.
Emerging technologies will alter the global balance of power, and this will happen faster than we think.
This technological tsunami arrives at a time when the world is already remarkably unstable. The bipolar stability of the Cold War era is a thing of the past; history, in essence, is not over. On the contrary, the world has become multipolar, characterized by fierce competition among great powers and an openly hostile group of authoritarian states intent on undermining the liberal international order.
We are also increasingly witnessing the rise of assertive nations — such as India, Brazil, Saudi Arabia, and Indonesia — that possess the political and economic clout to be directional, choosing the camp that best serves their national interests. As shown by the recent BRICS summit in Kazan, China — with Russia's backing — seeks to have more say in how the world is structured.
Adding to this is a complex set of non-state actors wielding significant influence due to their technological or financial capabilities. For example, who could have imagined ten years ago that someone like Elon Musk could play such a significant role in geopolitics? His influence — a testament to his wealth and the development and control of critical technologies — suggests that these technologies carry immense destructive threats.
The accelerating pace of technological change makes this issue increasingly dynamic every day. Meanwhile, generative AI has begun to elevate technology to the status of an "agent" that can be managed without human involvement. However, the foundations of the astonishing capabilities of generative AI remain shaky — as it learns from our colossal global reserves of information, characterized by some reliable facts resting on a vast, unreliable core of bits and bytes.
For some new technologies, the label "emerging" already seems outdated, as one can simply order something from this sci-fi future on Amazon. For just $129, you can purchase a CRISPR gene-editing kit, which in the wrong hands could be used for eugenics. Bioterrorism is an obvious risk threatening civilization, but it is just one of many.
Of course, as with all new powerful technologies, the benefits of synthetic biology are equally compelling: bacteria that absorb carbon dioxide, crops thriving in deserts, lab-grown meat capable of feeding a hungry world… The advantages of these technologies make them irresistible both to the market and to our desire for a healthier, wealthier society.
Their allure has turned these technologies into a "juggernaut" that is virtually impossible to control. They have also become crucial in the global competition between the free world and our malevolent authoritarian rivals. And it is the winners of this competition who will shape our future.
A clear example of this — possibly within less than a decade — will be quantum computing, which will allow us to solve impossible mathematical problems. However, it will also provide a decisive advantage to those seeking to undermine the values of the free world. In a "post-encryption world," much of what was secret will no longer be so.
Similarly, security risks surround the field of geoengineering, which involves managing solar radiation — deflecting sunlight away from the Earth. Although this concept sounds radical, it represents a technology that could become a vital plan of action amid the intensifying climate crisis. However, it harbors numerous dangers, not least the possibility of unilateral actions by a desperate state facing the most extreme consequences of climate change.
Finally, if artificial wombs are already successfully growing sheep, we may soon be able to grow humans — although some argue that this will not happen for at least another 10 years. This will undoubtedly change the situation for future parents who currently have to rely on surrogate mothers. But what about a nation experiencing a demographic collapse? What moral landscape will govern states that want to mass-produce children? Or dictators who wish to breed cannon fodder for their armies?
Moreover, we may not even be growing humans in the form we know them. The integration of mind and machine has already begun, and "brain-computer interfaces" are no longer confined to science fiction. The most well-known company, Neuralink Corp — one of Musk's ventures — is actively developing and testing implantable devices that may allow people to control computers or prosthetics directly with their brains. If successful, this means that severe brain injuries could be treatable, but we may also see people under remote observation and control.
If our future on this planet resembles a science fiction film, then space is even more so. The rapidly evolving space industry is currently worth over $500 billion a year and is projected to reach $1.8 trillion by 2035. However, despite the "Artemis Accords" of 2020 aimed at regulating life and business in space, they have yet to be signed by China (the second-largest space power in the world), Russia, or India. And how do Musk's plans and SpaceX's ambitions to create a sustainable colony on Mars — with its own governance — fit into all of this?
Governments need to begin preparing and reforming. Keeping pace with the development of all these technological changes, not to mention steering them in the right direction, is extremely challenging, especially when very few public sector leaders truly understand these critical new technologies.
Currently, such discussions in government are typically limited to a few niche teams and behind-the-scenes experts. Thus, part of the solution lies in talent and capability. Research from Apolitical shows that worldwide, only 65% of public officials have received any training on AI, and 85% have not undergone any training. This knowledge gap regarding AI needs to be addressed.
Governments also need to step back and look at the bigger picture. The public sector and its institutions need upskilling not only in AI but across all critical technologies of the future.
And, importantly, our institutions also require reform. This demands real leadership, but it is achievable. We are living through a time of crisis, and it is during crises that real change can occur.
New technologies collectively create an unstable world in which we cannot clearly understand what national security looks like. Reform will require imagination and energy, as well as unpopular decisions. But the primary duty of any government is to protect its population. And when our leaders confront these new technologies, as they inevitably must, it will become clear that they lie at the heart of national security, for better or worse.
The author expresses a personal opinion that may not align with the editorial stance. The responsibility for the published content in the "Opinions" section lies with the author.