The world's first underwater volcanic observatory is set to erupt. When will this event take place?

The Axical volcano is an underwater mountain located 480 kilometers west of Cannon Beach, Oregon, USA. This submarine mountain erupts regularly—observations indicate it became active in 1998, 2011, and 2015—and poses no threat to humans. It now appears that the underwater volcano is preparing to erupt once more, according to Live Science.

The consistent activity of the underwater mountain and its relative proximity to land have led scientists to establish the world’s first underwater volcanic observatory here, known as the Millennium Observatory.

Researchers are continuously monitoring instruments placed on Axical and have noticed that the surface of the underwater mountain is bulging—a sign of moving magma. According to geologist William Chadwick from Oregon State University, who studies the volcano and its nearby hydrothermal vents, these signs suggest that the underwater volcano is likely to erupt within this year.

Data indicates that the volcano's surface has already risen to 95% of the level observed during the 2015 eruption. The activity of the underwater mountain followed a period of quiet between 2015 and 2023—during which the mountain hardly shifted.

The new uplift, according to scientists, began in the fall of 2023 and intensified in January 2024. Researchers have recorded that the ground has been rising at a rate of about 25 centimeters per year. Chadwick also notes that the awakening of the underwater volcano has been accompanied by swarms of hundreds of small earthquakes, although the situation has stabilized somewhat since mid-2024.

Researchers point out that the rate of uplift has been stable over the past six months, and seismic activity has decreased. As a result, scientists cannot assert that an eruption is inevitable, but such activity cannot continue indefinitely. According to co-author of the study, geophysicist Scott Nuner from the University of North Carolina, the underwater volcano is likely to erupt by the end of 2025.

The authors of the study hope that their prediction is accurate, as Axical is a promising location for understanding the patterns that a volcano experiences before an eruption. The fact that the volcano has erupted several times over recent decades rather than centuries also simplifies the recognition of these patterns.

It is important to note that the eruption of the Axical underwater volcano does not pose a threat to human life or property. Volcanologists are currently able to make accurate short-term eruption forecasts, but according to the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program, predictions are rarely reliable beyond a few days.