The official exchange rate of the hryvnia strengthened by 7 kopecks on Monday.

The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) increased the official exchange rate of the hryvnia against the US dollar by 17 kopecks on Friday and further strengthened it by 7 kopecks at the end of trading on Monday, bringing it to 41.5554 UAH/$1, according to data from the regulator's website. As of 12:00 PM on Monday, the NBU set the reference rate at 41.5959 UAH/$1, down from 41.6644 UAH/$1 on Friday. "The dollar exchange rate may fluctuate within the range of 41.8-42.5 UAH/$1. The NBU continues to actively curb sharp fluctuations, as evidenced by currency sales from reserves, and no significant inflation risks are anticipated in the coming month," analysts from the currency exchange operator "KIT Group" shared their expectations for the upcoming weeks in their February review. However, among the current risks, they noted a potential further increase in the dollar's exchange rate if the Federal Reserve changes its policy, or due to sharp fluctuations in external markets, as well as the likelihood of short-term "jumps" in the rate in response to any news regarding delays in international aid. Analysts expect a gradual weakening of the hryvnia to 44 UAH/$1 during the first half of the year, which could be driven by an increase in import purchases in the spring, worsening inflation expectations, and consequently - a faster depreciation of the national currency. Other factors contributing to this forecast include a higher demand for currency in Ukraine due to the expected shift of the Federal Reserve towards a more accommodative monetary policy. Additional risks, according to experts at "KIT Group," could arise from a deteriorating economic situation or a shortage of financial assistance. "Should the current macroeconomic landscape persist, the dollar could reach 45 UAH/$1 by the end of the year, although this scenario entirely depends on the success of the government's economic policy and the stability and sufficiency of external financing inflows," the analysts concluded. As reported, the Cabinet of Ministers has projected an average annual official exchange rate of the hryvnia against the US dollar in the 2025 state budget at 45 UAH/$1. In the 2024 budget, the government estimated an average annual rate of 40.7 UAH/$1, with a year-end projection of 42.1 UAH/$1. Throughout the past year, the hryvnia weakened by 10.6% based on the official rate, or by 4.02 UAH, to 42.0390 UAH/$1. As of February 1, 2025, preliminary data indicated that Ukraine's international reserves amounted to $43 billion and 3.1 million, down 1.8% or $785 million in January, while net international reserves (NIR) decreased by $0.79 billion or 2.7%, to $28.313 billion.