After receiving news about the plane crash in Aktau, the Azerbaijani president's aircraft made a significant turn over Russia.
As a result, Ilham Aliyev did not attend the summit in St. Petersburg and returned to Baku. This is a symbolic move that reflects the Azerbaijani leadership's attitude towards the plane crash and, importantly, towards the Russian government's reaction to it.
In essence, the relations between Azerbaijan and Russia are undergoing substantial changes.
To read about how the relationship between the two countries is evolving, check out the article by Sergey Danilov, Deputy Director of the Center for Middle Eastern Studies, titled Aliyev's Turn: How the Plane Crash and Russian Lies Changed Azerbaijan-Russia Relations. Below is a brief summary of it.
Azerbaijani experts on YouTube channels are urging the Russian side, including Vladimir Putin, to resolve the issue with a single phone call.
However, Moscow has predictably chosen the opposite tactic of delaying and spreading numerous false narratives.
The transcripts from the first flight recorder indicate that the Russian leadership knew all the details of the incident from the very first second.
Moreover, the discussions with the air traffic controller reveal a cynical disregard for the safety of those on board by the Russians.
Regardless of the Kremlin's subsequent actions, a deep rift has formed in Azerbaijan-Russia relations.
The plane crash has shocked the Azerbaijani public, which has united in the face of this tragedy.
As noted by all Azerbaijani experts, this event has undermined the "sincerity" and trust towards Russia and its leadership that had developed over recent years.
Official Baku invested heavily to maintain the most predictable relationship with Russia, facing criticism and associated risks.
Now, however, Azerbaijani experts openly state that there will be a pause in relations with Russia until the investigation concludes.
The next steps from Azerbaijan will depend on whether Moscow accepts the investigation's results and meets Baku's demands: acknowledgment of the fact that the plane was shot down by Russian air defense, punishment of those responsible, and compensation for the victims.
Most likely, Baku will continue to implement joint projects with Russia, but only those that are beneficial for Azerbaijan.
Meanwhile, everything primarily advantageous to Russia will be put on hold.
Of course, the complex security situation in the region and mutual dependence leave the Kremlin with enough levers of influence over Baku.
A full-fledged confrontational spiral is not in Azerbaijan's interest.
However, both countries cannot change their behavior patterns in this situation. It seems that Baku is beginning to calculate the worst-case scenarios for the future.
Being squeezed between Iran and Russia until relations with Armenia are fully resolved is dangerous for Azerbaijan.
A nearly stalemate situation has developed, where Baku cannot publicly ignore Russian manipulations. Conversely, Moscow cannot stop manipulating, as Russia does not consider Azerbaijan an equal partner, and the aviation disaster has only showcased this true attitude.
Azerbaijan has become a reluctant partner for Russia under conditions of isolation and sanctions, but imperial culture manifests itself even against rational interests.
For more details, see Sergey Danilov's article Aliyev's Turn: How the Plane Crash and Russian Lies Changed Azerbaijan-Russia Relations.