Ukrainian wheat exports in January and February showed a declining trend, averaging less than 1 million tons per month. However, the situation began to shift following Russia's introduction of quotas on wheat exports, prompting importers to turn to Ukrainian products, reported the analytical cooperative "PUSK," established under the All-Ukrainian Agrarian Council.
"Many importers who traditionally purchased Russian wheat have started to consider Ukrainian products as an alternative. Among them are Egypt, Algeria, Tunisia, Morocco, Romania, and Bulgaria. This has already led to an increase in the pace of Ukrainian wheat exports. Preliminary data indicates that 750,000 tons have already been contracted for March, and some traders predict that volumes may reach one million tons," analysts noted.
Experts pointed out that despite the rising demand for Ukrainian wheat, the situation with domestic market stocks remains tense. As of March 1, the stock volume is estimated at 7.4 million tons, significantly lower compared to the previous season when it exceeded 10 million tons. This creates risks of limited supply in the market and could lead to price fluctuations.
"Competition among exporters may significantly impact pricing policy, especially considering the decreasing stocks. Some traders are already opting for a strategy of gradually reducing sales rates, waiting for more favorable conditions," analysts emphasized.
According to their information, the domestic market for food wheat in Ukraine is also showing increased demand from processors. Enterprises in Kyiv and Vinnytsia regions are willing to pay 10,800-11,000 UAH/ton for second-class wheat, which is nearly in line with export prices.
"Processors are actively competing for second-class wheat, making sales in the domestic market more profitable than exports. If farmers see favorable conditions in the domestic market, it makes sense to take advantage of this and sell their products locally," experts recommend.
The market is currently continuing to grow steadily; however, analysts warn that this trend may change in the coming weeks. Historically, the second half of February, March, and April are characterized by a decline in wheat prices.
"We are observing some downturn in the exchange market, which could negatively affect Ukrainian exports. Additionally, factors related to the new harvest will also start to play a role, especially in late April and May, when the first data on sowing and yield forecasts in Europe, Russia, Ukraine, and the USA become available," notes "PUSK."
Analysts also highlighted that there are moisture issues in Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Zhytomyr, and Vinnytsia regions, which could impact the quality and volumes of the harvest.
The coming weeks will be crucial for shaping the future price dynamics of wheat in Ukraine, they predict.