Russian expert circles do not consider a victory for Russia or a military defeat for Ukraine as the primary scenarios for 2025.

This is stated in the annual report by the Russian Academy of Sciences titled "Russia and the World: 2025," which is referenced by the Ukrainian Foreign Intelligence Service.

To achieve a "victorious" scenario, Moscow would require significant additional resources, organizational efforts, and favorable external conditions by 2025.

Russian analysts discuss two likely scenarios for developments in 2025.

"The first scenario involves the Trump administration organizing a negotiation track 'from a position of strength' in the second half of 2025. U.S. pressure on Russia will include enhanced sanctions and increased arms supplies to Ukraine," the report states.

фронт, война, флаг

The second scenario envisions a continuation of hostilities with a gradual increase in strikes on Russian territory, as the U.S. is not interested in Ukraine's defeat after making significant investments.

Intelligence reports indicate that the discrepancies between the official position of the Kremlin and the views of expert circles do not alter Russia's main objective: the destruction of Ukraine as a state.