By the end of 2025, the dollar could reach 47 UAH.
This was reported by Oleg Pendzin, the executive director of the Economic Discussion Club, during the broadcast of Ranak.LIVE.
According to him, Ukrainians should prepare for the increase in the value of the American currency, which is expected to continue over the next year. It is anticipated that 2025 will start with the dollar exchange rate at 42 UAH/USD and end at around 47 UAH/USD. Given that the state budget for 2025 projects an average annual exchange rate of 45 UAH/USD, the actual situation may be less optimistic.
The expert believes that over the next 12 months, the dollar will become more expensive, with the final rate potentially ranging between 47 and 47.5 UAH/USD. This is due to the limited number of participants in Ukraine's foreign exchange market. According to Pendzin, the National Bank of Ukraine is effectively the only seller of currency, which significantly influences the exchange rate.
"There is no foreign exchange market in Ukraine (in a certain sense). A normal situation is when there are many currency sellers, who are also exporters, and many buyers, who are importers, and their supply/demand balance forms the rate. Plus, there’s a regulatory body above that, at best, buys or conducts some interventions. That's how a normal foreign exchange market operates,” he states.