Extremely low natural gas reserves in Ukrainian underground storage facilities (UGSF) amounting to 6.3 billion cubic meters, marking a historical low for the end of February, combined with the severe condition of many infrastructure facilities after bombardments, pose significant challenges in preparing for the new autumn-winter season of 2025/26, according to former Energy Minister Olga Buslavets.
"These (current gas reserves - IF-U) are 31% below the average levels of the usual years 2015-2018, and 31% lower than last year," she reported on Facebook on Friday.
According to Buslavets, the total reserve level of 6.3 billion cubic meters includes 4.1 billion cubic meters of long-term storage gas, taking into account gas in temporarily uncontrolled territories, as well as 0.6 billion cubic meters of active long-term storage gas that has been categorized as "buffer gas." This volume also includes 0.04 billion cubic meters of gas from non-residents.
At the same time, daily gas consumption in Ukraine has not exceeded 120 million cubic meters per day due to recent warming, which necessitates withdrawals from UGSF of up to 60 million cubic meters per day and imports of up to 20 million cubic meters per day.
The former minister referred to data from LLC "Gas Transmission System Operator of Ukraine" (GTSOU), which indicated that in the past week, net gas imports to Ukraine (excluding short-haul) amounted to 140 million cubic meters.
Meanwhile, natural gas reserves in European UGSF total 42.9 billion cubic meters with a filling level of 39%.
"In the context of the completion of UA-transit and lower temperatures, a more rapid decrease in European UGSF reserves is observed, which could lead to tougher competition between Europe and Asia in the summer of 2025 for spot LNG volumes to accumulate the mandatory level of European UGSF by November 1, 2025 - 90%," Buslavets noted. According to her, the loss of only Ukrainian transit results in an additional import of over 15 billion cubic meters of LNG to Europe annually.
At the same time, the former head of GTSOU, Sergey Makogon, pointed out that Ukraine will need to import 3-5 billion cubic meters of gas by the end of this year to cover the deficit.