Oleg Pendzin, an economist and member of the Economic Discussion Club, explained when dairy product prices in Ukraine might decrease.
He notes that the rise in milk prices is due to objective factors, such as the feed base and seasonal changes.
“In 2024, grain production volumes, particularly corn, have decreased, leading to higher prices for grain and feed. This has impacted milk prices. Additionally, during the cold season, the amount of milk yield decreases, which increases the cost of raw milk used to produce dairy products,” Pendzin clarified.
He also mentioned that feed prices are unlikely to drop in the near future, and the continuation of rising dairy prices may only occur if the purchasing power of the population improves.
“Producers are actively using marketing strategies, for example, selling milk not by the liter but by 880 g, or butter in 180 g packages instead of 200 g. This allows them to avoid raising the packaging price, but the overall cost of milk will continue to rise,” the expert added.
According to Pendzin, in 2024, the consumer basket increased in price by 14%, while milk prices rose by 20%. It is expected that by the end of 2025, the price of raw milk will increase by another 10-12%.
"Dairy product prices are expected to rise by 2-3% monthly until May, but after the livestock are released to pastures, prices may stabilize or decrease," the economist reports.
Official statistics from the State Statistics Service confirm these trends: the average price of pasteurized milk increased from 38.15 UAH to 43.71 UAH per liter, and the price of butter rose from 75.65 UAH to 96.81 UAH for 200 g. Sour cream and cheeses have become 18-20% more expensive over the year.